It is a high-risk exercise to name a political course that is about to start as ‘transitional’ high seismic activity that characterizes current politics makes the future unpredictable in just a few months.
But, at least right now, it can be said that between now and the next summer vacation no electoral appointment is scheduled . The closest elections would be those of Andalusia, which will be held at the end of 2022.
There is no shortage of rumors of electoral advancement, in search of the wake of the overwhelming victory of Isabel Díaz Ayuso in Madrid, but the Andalusian PP, for the moment, contains the temptation.
In parallel, the partners of the Government will continue to deal with this course with suspicions about whether they will be able to exhaust the legislature or whether the general elections will have to be precipitated.
If the calendar is not altered, the event in Andalusia would open a dizzying electoral cycle, with municipal , regional and general elections in 2023.
With no elections in sight, then, the management of the pandemic , the tensions between PSOE and United We Can, the influence of the Catalan conflict and the battle between the right wing have caused multiple ups and downs in the polls in these first eight months of the year.
The average of all the polls published since the beginning of 2021 records a minimal advantage of Pablo Casado over Pedro Sánchez, of just 1.4 points , on the threshold of a key political course for the stability of the Executive, via Budgets.
The Socialists stayed ahead during the first half of the year, but it was losing steam coinciding with the new restrictions due to the covid, the comings and goings with vaccination and the pardons of the ‘procés’.
IN3 (Internet Interdisciplinary Institute), correspond to the weighted average of the main polls published. The weighting is carried out, as in other formulas of this type, according to the size of the sample – the larger, the greater the value – and the date of the field work – the more recent, the more significant.
Beyond the fight for electoral victory, Vox remains the third political force and would hardly suffer attrition, since it stands at 15.2% of the votes and 48 seats (today it has 52). United We , on the other hand, would lose strength after passing through the Government and, always according to the average of the polls, this year begins with 10% and 24 deputies (now it has 35).