Positive August For Ibex, Which Fails To Reduce Gap With Europe

Positive August For Ibex, Which Fails To Reduce Gap With Europe

The threat of the Delta variant to the economic recovery , the symptoms of a slowdown in China or the geopolitical tension in Afghanistan have not been enough arguments to avoid a positive August in the parks, where the Jackson Hole effect has weighed more , after the President of the US Fed, Jerome Powell, detached the beginning of the tapering (withdrawal of stimuli) from future increases in interest rates, removing the threat of correction in the stock markets .

In this way, the main indicators say goodbye to the month, in the absence of this Tuesday’s session, with increases of 3% in the case of the S&P 500 (which in the middle of Monday’s session was moving at levels never seen before) and 2%, on average, in European indices.

In Spanish key, the Ibex 35 was the loose verse among its comparables. While the rest of the continent’s squares rebounded, on average, 0.2%, with the maximums on Wall Street as a backdrop, the Spanish indicator yielded 0.6%, affected by the banking sector, which was left, on average, 1% and Cellnex , which lost 2%.

Thus, and despite saying goodbye to August with a rebound of 2.22% (with which the selective has managed to cut the downward streak of two months in negative), the indicator does not manage to reduce the profitability gap that it has maintained against the EuroStoxx50 since January , of which it is still 8 points.

Despite the laziness that the selective country showed in front of its counterparts, Carlos Almarza, technical analyst and Ecotrader advisor, once again emphasizes the “relative strength” of the index as it remains “with some comfort over the support zone of 8,800, of whose maintenance depends on its options to continue advancing towards the June highs before it is likely to correct positions. ”

The prospect that an interest rate hike is still a long way off (the consensus of analysts that Bloomberg collects does not see it, at the earliest, until the last quarter of 2022 ) and the American ten-year bond at around 1.28% (compared to to the 1.35% that it reached in the day before Jackson Hole) has given wings to technology on both sides of the Atlantic.

In the case of European industry, the sectorial index that brings together the main companies, mostly semiconductors, advances 6% to maximums that it had not seen since September 2000 ??. The Nasdaq 100, meanwhile, scores more than 4%.

They are followed, in this order, by the media, insurance companies, telecos and utilities , with increases of between 3.8% and 4.7%. In fact, in the case of electricity companies, they add up their best monthly record since last March. On the other hand, basic resources, retail and car manufacturers lost between 1.6% and 3%.

Telefónica, the most bullish
Back on the Spanish market, Telefónica , Siemens Gamesa and Cellnex are the most bullish values ​​of the last thirty days with increases between 8% and 10%. The telecommunications firm is, together with Merlin and Bankinter , one of the stocks that are closest to their respective highs for the year. In the case of the Socimi, which recorded 4% in August, it is 0.6% of the 9.86 euros per share that it signed on August 16. In that of the company chaired by Álvarez-Pallete, he is just over 1% away from revalidating the highs he signed last week at 4.30 euros.

On the other hand, Endesa is the stock that trades closest to its lowest level of the year after falling 2% in the month. And despite this, it is not the most bearish of the indicator. Ferrovial, CIE Automotive, IAG, Grifols and Amadeus fell between 2.6% and 7.8% in this period.

The euro returns to 1.18 dollars
Finally, the euro recovered this Monday the 1.18 dollars that it lost at the beginning of the month after scoring 0.10% against the greenback in this period. “The meeting showed the market the greater sensitivity of the Fed to the current environment of uncertainty, and the consequent fall in North American yields favored the advance of the euro and other currencies with lower relative returns,” according to analysts at Monex Europe.

Crude adds its fourth month on the rise
Despite the fluctuations that the price of oil has experienced in the last four weeks due to the concern that travel restrictions due to the expansion of the Delta variant affect global demand for fuel, the raw material has managed to sign a month more positive, with an advance of 1.6%.

The price of a barrel of Brent of reference in the Old Continent, thus chains its fourth month in green to the area of ​​72.6 dollars. Only since last August 20, when black gold visited three-month lows at 65.18 euros per barrel, has it bounced by 11.5%. In fact, last week was the best for crude since June 2020.

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