The emerging markets have not been able to keep up with the developed ones in the last 10 years, and the behavior of the stock exchanges of the main developing markets, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), have not been able to achieve the returns that have been obtained with the US stock market, which has appreciated 253% in this period in the case of the S&P 500, the index with the largest capitalization in the world.
And it’s not just the BRICs that have lagged since 2011: the MSCI World stock index has risen 141% since that year. In the same period, the MSCI EM , which includes stocks from emerging countries, barely increased by 8.7%.
Thus, the decade that has followed the financial crisis has not been a good one for these markets. However, nothing is forever, and at some point the equities of these countries should be able to perform better than developed stock markets.
For some of the largest analysis houses in the world that moment has already arrived , coinciding with the end of the Covid 19 pandemic, and the rebound in inflation that is taking place , something that, due to its relationship with the increases in materials premiums, is related to the better prospects for these countries, large producers of basic resources.
Goldman Sachs is one of the firms that has already made public its good prospects for emerging markets . This same week he stressed that he is “optimistic” with the values of developing markets, and favor the trading floor and the currencies of Brazil, Mexico and Russia, since they consider that “the return to normality is not yet priced.”
Bank of America also agrees, highlighting how capital flows to emerging markets have accelerated in recent months, and expects “this trend to continue, taking into account the macro trends that are forming and the valuations of the economy. variable income “, they explain in this investment bank.
The flows have been focused on the energy sector, according to the American bank, and now they believe that the materials sector and also the financial sector could follow.
The process of tightening regulations that China is carrying out makes Goldman skeptical about investment in this country in the short term, since they consider that there is the possibility of “an additional drop of around 20% for the country’s equities “.
However, they consider that the rest of the emerging markets will not be affected by the regulatory efforts of Beijing: “These concerns are unlikely to spread to the rest of the emerging markets,” they explain.
Sustainable emerging funds
The emerging universe is not the most conducive to sustainable investment. There are many ESG fund managers, who place great importance on sustainability aspects, who highlight the difficulties encountered when one enters this world and intends to invest with this approach. However, there are mutual funds that invest in emerging markets and have a good sustainability rating for Morningstar, and that also leave good returns for participants.
If mutual funds that invest in emerging markets globally are selected (not focused exclusively on one country or region), and have the best Morningstar sustainability score (5 globes), the best performing fund has achieved in the last decade is Nordea 1 – Emerging Stars Equity BP EUR . The Finnish manager’s vehicle, with assets of more than 5,000 million euros, achieves almost 11.8% annualized profitability in the last decade.
After him, the most profitable fund in this period has been Stewart Inv Glbl Em Mkts Sust VI EUR Acc , from First Sentier Investors, a product that achieves an annualized 10.54% in the last 10 years. JPM Emerging Markets Equity I (acc) EUR , from the US bank manager JP Morgan, is the next most profitable fund, with 10.28% annualized in the decade, followed by AB Emerging Markets Gr I Acc , from AllianceBernstein, with 8.41% in the same period. In fifth place is Jupiter Global EMs Focus L EUR Acc , with 8.27% annualized.
The sixth most profitable fund on the list has a Spanish label. It is the Caja Ingenieros Emergentes A FI , owned by Caja Ingenieros Gestión, with Didac Pérez at the controls, a vehicle that achieved 7.8% annualized profitability in the decade.
With the exception of the First Sentier fund (the second most profitable of the six), in the first five positions of the rest of the products there are some companies that are recurrently repeated. In all of them there is the same company as the most important position in the portfolio at the moment: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing , the largest producer of semiconductor chips in the world, which produces more than half of these types of components that are sold to third parties. all over the world.
It is a sector that has been very profitable in recent years , with a return of more than 320% in the last decade for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index of manufacturers.
In addition to the chipmaker, another firm that appears recurrently in most of these portfolios is Tencent Holdings , also among the top 5 positions in all funds except First Sentier. The fall of almost 20% that the firm accumulates in 2021, and the losses of 2% that the MSCI EM Index signs have not prevented these funds from maintaining good results this year, from the 11.8% achieved by the Stewart Inv Glbl In Mkts Sust VI EUR Acc , up to 2.56% achieved by the JP Morgan fund.